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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 60

New England Patriots 0 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(12:50) 7-J.Bailey punts 41 yards to BAL 19, Center-49-J.Cardona. 27-C.Jones MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NE-29-J.Bethel at BAL 20. 29-J.Bethel to BAL 20 for no gain (27-C.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.86 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 60, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 19, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP