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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2019-11-03 · 20:20 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

NE
48.1%
BAL
51.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE defense: -0.483 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • BAL offense: +0.095 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • BAL on 7 more days rest than NE
  • NE offense: +0.031 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • QB edge to NE: Lamar Jackson (BAL) +0.114 vs Tom Brady (NE) +0.176 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

NE 23
–
BAL 25
Projected margin: BAL by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

NE

Matt LaCosse TE Out Knee
Rex Burkhead RB Questionable Foot
Patrick Chung S Questionable Heel
Julian Edelman WR Questionable Chest
Ryan Izzo TE Questionable Concussion
Shaquille Mason G Questionable Ankle
Gunner Olszewski WR Questionable Ankle
James White RB Questionable Toe

BAL

Marquise Brown WR Questionable Ankle
Bennett Jackson S Questionable Ankle
Jimmy Smith CB Questionable Knee
Maurice Canady CB Questionable Thigh
Patrick Mekari G Questionable Back
Patrick Onwuasor LB Questionable Ankle
Earl Thomas S Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 20
–
BAL 37

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:20 TD BAL (8:20) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – BAL 6
  • Q1 02:33 FG BAL (2:33) 9-J.Tucker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. NE 0 – BAL 10
  • Q2 14:11 TD BAL (14:11) (Shotgun) 35-G.Edwards left guard for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – BAL 16
  • Q2 12:06 TD NE (12:06) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 14-M.Sanu for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – BAL 17
  • Q2 03:44 FG NE (3:44) 2-N.Folk 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 10 – BAL 17
  • Q2 00:10 FG NE (:10) 2-N.Folk 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 13 – BAL 17
  • Q3 12:39 TD BAL (12:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 11-J.Edelman to BAL 30 for no gain (48-P.Onwuasor). FUMBLES (48-P.Onwuasor), RECOVERED by BAL-44-M.Humphrey at BAL 30. 44-M.Humphrey for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 13 – BAL 23
  • Q3 08:07 TD NE (8:07) (No Huddle) 28-J.White right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 19 – BAL 24
  • Q4 15:00 TD BAL (15:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 86-N.Boyle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-L.Guy]. NE 20 – BAL 30
  • Q4 03:19 TD BAL (3:19) (Shotgun) 74-J.Hurst reported in as eligible. 8-L.Jackson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 20 – BAL 36

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:00) 7-J.Bailey punts 57 yards to BAL 18, Center-49-J.Cardona. 27-C.Jones to BAL 25 for 7 yards (29-J.Bethel).

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 10 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 90%

    (2:33) 9-J.Tucker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 16 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (:52) 7-J.Bailey punts 48 yards to BAL 23, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-29-J.Bethel.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (12:50) 7-J.Bailey punts 41 yards to BAL 19, Center-49-J.Cardona. 27-C.Jones MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NE-29-J.Bethel at BAL 20. 29-J.Bethel to BAL 20 for no gain (27-C.Jones).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (10:35) 4-S.Koch punts 50 yards to NE 21, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-33-B.Jackson.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 9 at the 37
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 64%

    (7:29) 7-J.Bailey punts 31 yards to BAL 6, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-43-N.Ebner.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (3:44) 2-N.Folk 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:51) 4-S.Koch punts 48 yards to NE 18, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.55 EP
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (:10) 2-N.Folk 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 4 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 62%

    (3:33) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 83-W.Snead to NE 31 for 7 yards (30-J.McCourty).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 13 at the 65 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:15) 7-J.Bailey punts 56 yards to BAL 9, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.