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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 66

Baltimore Ravens 17 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(1:51) 4-S.Koch punts 48 yards to NE 18, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.01 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 66, worth -3.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 24, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model