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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 38

Baltimore Ravens 24 – New England Patriots 20

What Actually Happened

(3:33) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 83-W.Snead to NE 31 for 7 yards (30-J.McCourty).

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.67 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 38, worth -1.90 EP
KICK +0.29 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 47, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model