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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 13 at the 65

New England Patriots 20 – Baltimore Ravens 37

What Actually Happened

(1:15) 7-J.Bailey punts 56 yards to BAL 9, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-18-M.Slater.

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +1.28 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 65, worth -2.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 23, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model