4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 21

Baltimore Ravens 7 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(2:33) 9-J.Tucker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.23 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 31, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model