Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 16 at the 71

New England Patriots 0 – Baltimore Ravens 10

(:52) 7-J.Bailey punts 48 yards to BAL 23, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-29-J.Bethel.

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.05 EP
72% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 71, worth -4.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model