Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 64

Arizona Cardinals 7 – San Francisco 49ers 14

(5:06) 4-A.Lee punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.64 EP
69% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model