Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- SF defense: -0.313 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- ARI defense: +0.134 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- SF offense: +0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- Jimmy Garoppolo (SF): +0.143 EPA/dropback in prior starts
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 9
SF
ARI
Pulled fresh for 2019 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 12:17 TD ARI (12:17) (Shotgun) 41-K.Drake right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – ARI 6
- Q1 00:13 TD SF (:13) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – ARI 7
- Q2 09:05 TD SF (9:05) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 84-K.Bourne for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 13 – ARI 7
- Q2 00:04 TD SF (:04) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 17-E.Sanders for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 20 – ARI 7
- Q3 09:07 TD ARI (9:07) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 19-K.Johnson for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 21 – ARI 13
- Q3 06:02 TD SF (6:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep right to 18-D.Pettis for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 27 – ARI 14
- Q4 09:28 FG ARI (9:28) 5-Z.Gonzalez 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee. SF 28 – ARI 17
- Q4 05:09 TD ARI (5:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 89-A.Isabella for 88 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 28 – ARI 23
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 SF 4th & 3 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 57%
(9:55) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 47 yards to ARI 23, Center-86-K.Nelson. 12-P.Cooper ran ob at ARI 32 for 9 yards (29-J.Tartt).
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Q1 ARI 4th & 20 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 21%
(7:16) 4-A.Lee punts 24 yards to SF 33, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.
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Q1 SF 4th & 2 at the 59Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EPp(convert) 62%
(5:46) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 49 yards to ARI 10, Center-86-K.Nelson. 12-P.Cooper to ARI 9 for -1 yards (31-R.Mostert; 33-T.Moore).
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Q1 ARI 4th & 5 at the 86Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(4:39) 4-A.Lee punts 54 yards to SF 32, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-R.James Jr. ran ob at SF 41 for 9 yards (16-T.Sherfield).
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Q2 ARI 4th & 10 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(5:06) 4-A.Lee punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.
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Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%
(:04) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 17-E.Sanders for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q3 SF 4th & 16 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(12:00) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 47 yards to ARI 18, Center-86-K.Nelson. 12-P.Cooper pushed ob at SF 44 for 38 yards (29-J.Tartt). PENALTY on ARI-42-D.Gardeck, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 27.
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Q3 ARI 4th & 13 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(3:40) 4-A.Lee punts 59 yards to SF 19, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 29 for 10 yards (42-D.Gardeck). PENALTY on ARI-46-A.Brewer, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SF 29.
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Q3 SF 4th & 9 at the 45Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 44%
(1:08) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 38 yards to ARI 7, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 12-P.Cooper.
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Q4 ARI 4th & 13 at the 18Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23% p(FG) 93%
(9:28) 5-Z.Gonzalez 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.
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Q4 SF 4th & 3 at the 60Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EPp(convert) 56%
(5:36) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 50 yards to ARI 10, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 12-P.Cooper.