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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 16 at the 65

San Francisco 49ers 21 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(12:00) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 47 yards to ARI 18, Center-86-K.Nelson. 12-P.Cooper pushed ob at SF 44 for 38 yards (29-J.Tartt). PENALTY on ARI-42-D.Gardeck, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 27.

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.78 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 65, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 23, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model