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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 45

San Francisco 49ers 28 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 38 yards to ARI 7, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 12-P.Cooper.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.30 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 45, worth -2.43 EP
KICK -0.86 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model