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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 13 at the 18

Arizona Cardinals 14 – San Francisco 49ers 28

What Actually Happened

(9:28) 5-Z.Gonzalez 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.70 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model