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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 60

San Francisco 49ers 28 – Arizona Cardinals 17

What Actually Happened

(5:36) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 50 yards to ARI 10, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 12-P.Cooper.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.49 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 60, worth -1.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 19, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP