Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 20 at the 57

Arizona Cardinals 7 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(7:16) 4-A.Lee punts 24 yards to SF 33, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP

21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.80 EP
79% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 57, worth -2.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model