4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 59

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(5:46) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 49 yards to ARI 10, Center-86-K.Nelson. 12-P.Cooper to ARI 9 for -1 yards (31-R.Mostert; 33-T.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.75 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 59, worth -3.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 18, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP