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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 50

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(10:56) 8-B.Pinion punts 35 yards to SEA 15, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.68 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 50, worth -2.89 EP
KICK -1.65 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP