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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Bruce Arians
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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2019-11-03 · 16:05 CenturyLink Field, Seattle US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.0 O/U 51.0

Win Probability

TB
36.6%
SEA
63.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Russell Wilson (SEA): +0.211 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SEA offense: +0.047 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • SEA defense: +0.043 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • TB crossing 3 time zone(s)

Predicted Final Score

TB 24
–
SEA 26
Projected margin: SEA by 2 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

TB

O.J. Howard TE Out Hamstring
Cameron Brate TE Questionable Ribs

SEA

Quandre Diggs S Doubtful Hamstring
Quinton Jefferson DT Doubtful Oblique
Delano Hill S Doubtful Elbow

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 34
–
SEA 40

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 24 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:37 TD TB (11:37) 27-R.Jones left guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 6 – SEA 0
  • Q1 08:29 TD SEA (8:29) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 7 – SEA 6
  • Q1 00:56 TD TB (:56) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 19-B.Perriman for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Ball tipped by TB #13. TB 13 – SEA 7
  • Q2 04:37 TD TB (4:37) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 13-M.Evans for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 20 – SEA 7
  • Q2 00:34 TD SEA (:34) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 48-J.Hollister for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 21 – SEA 13
  • Q3 08:07 TD SEA (8:07) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 16-T.Lockett for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 21 – SEA 19
  • Q3 03:22 FG TB (3:22) 9-M.Gay 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. TB 24 – SEA 21
  • Q4 14:30 FG SEA (14:30) 5-J.Myers 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. TB 24 – SEA 24
  • Q4 08:22 FG SEA (8:22) 5-J.Myers 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. TB 24 – SEA 27
  • Q4 05:27 FG TB (5:27) 9-M.Gay 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. TB 27 – SEA 27
  • Q4 04:34 TD SEA (4:34) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 14-DK.Metcalf for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 27 – SEA 33
  • Q4 00:48 TD TB (:48) (No Huddle) 44-D.Ogunbowale left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 33 – SEA 34
  • Q5 06:27 TD SEA (6:27) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 48-J.Hollister for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. TB 34 – SEA 40

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (6:25) 8-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to SEA 32, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 6 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (5:38) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to TB 12, Center-69-T.Ott. 22-T.Logan to TB 31 for 19 yards (48-J.Hollister).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 5 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 78%

    (11:08) 5-J.Myers 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 12 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (1:53) 8-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to SEA 33, Center-97-Z.Triner. 16-T.Lockett pushed ob at SEA 40 for 7 yards (54-L.David).

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 19 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (13:40) 4-M.Dickson punts 63 yards to TB 21, Center-69-T.Ott. 22-T.Logan to TB 33 for 12 yards (55-B.Burr-Kirven; 23-N.Thorpe).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 4 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 28%

    (10:56) 8-B.Pinion punts 35 yards to SEA 15, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 13 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 87%

    (3:22) 9-M.Gay 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 5 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 91%

    (14:30) 5-J.Myers 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 2 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (12:16) 8-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to SEA 23, Center-97-Z.Triner. 16-T.Lockett pushed ob at SEA 31 for 8 yards (51-K.Minter).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (8:22) 5-J.Myers 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 6 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 82%

    (5:27) 9-M.Gay 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 5 at the 35 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 65%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston scrambles left end to SEA 30 for 5 yards (50-K.Wright).