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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 13 at the 23

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21 – Seattle Seahawks 21

What Actually Happened

(3:22) 9-M.Gay 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.29 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 23, worth -1.26 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 33, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model