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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 4

Seattle Seahawks 24 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24

What Actually Happened

(8:22) 5-J.Myers 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +2.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.95 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 4, worth +0.34 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP