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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 35

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 – Seattle Seahawks 34

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston scrambles left end to SEA 30 for 5 yards (50-K.Wright).

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
What Happened
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +2.90 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 35, worth -1.17 EP
KICK +0.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 45, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.32 EP