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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 54

Carolina Panthers 3 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(10:45) 5-M.Palardy punts 37 yards to TEN 17, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.06 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 54, worth -2.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model