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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
Sunday 2019-11-03 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

TEN
38.1%
CAR
61.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: -0.073 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • CAR defense: -0.056 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • TEN defense: -0.102 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • CAR offense: -0.037 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • QB edge to CAR: Cam Newton (CAR) -0.035 vs Ryan Tannehill (TEN) -0.120 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

TEN 19
–
CAR 22
Projected margin: CAR by 3 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

TEN

Jurrell Casey DT Out Shoulder
Ben Jones C Out Concussion
Delanie Walker TE Out Ankle
Chris Milton CB Questionable Ankle

CAR

Greg Little T Out Concussion
Cam Newton QB Out Foot
Mario Addison LB Questionable Not Injury Related
Curtis Samuel WR Questionable Shoulder
Christian Miller LB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 20
–
CAR 30

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 13:34 FG CAR (13:34) 4-J.Slye 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. TEN 0 – CAR 3
  • Q2 08:10 TD CAR (8:10) 7-K.Allen pass short right to 22-C.McCaffrey for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – CAR 9
  • Q2 01:04 TD CAR (1:04) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short left to 10-C.Samuel for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-D.Jones]. TEN-21-M.Butler was injured during the play. He is Out. TEN 0 – CAR 16
  • Q3 10:18 TD TEN (10:18) (No Huddle) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – CAR 17
  • Q3 05:19 TD CAR (5:19) 60-D.Williams reported in as eligible. 22-C.McCaffrey left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 7 – CAR 23
  • Q4 14:24 TD TEN (14:24) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 22-D.Henry for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 13 – CAR 24
  • Q4 10:33 TD CAR (10:33) 22-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 14 – CAR 30
  • Q4 02:58 TD TEN (2:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill scrambles right end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 20 – CAR 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 7 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:12) 5-M.Palardy punts 48 yards to TEN 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 10-A.Humphries to TEN 24 for 11 yards (42-C.Jones).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 1 at the 25
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 85%

    (9:47) 4-R.Succop 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 3 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (3:58) 6-B.Kern punts 35 yards to CAR 32, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 17 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 93%

    (13:34) 4-J.Slye 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 6 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (10:45) 5-M.Palardy punts 37 yards to TEN 17, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 2 at the 7
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 97%

    (8:10) 7-K.Allen pass short right to 22-C.McCaffrey for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (7:16) 6-B.Kern punts 53 yards to CAR 20, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 14-G.Dortch to CAR 30 for 10 yards (53-D.Bates). PENALTY on CAR-23-J.Elliott, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 20.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 19 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 59%

    (:04) 4-R.Succop 56 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (9:10) (Punt formation) 42-C.Jones right end to CAR 41 for 5 yards (29-D.Cruikshank).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 15 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (3:35) 6-B.Kern punts 51 yards to CAR 39, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 14-G.Dortch to 50 for 11 yards (31-K.Byard, 85-M.Pruitt).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 6 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 38%

    (2:27) 5-M.Palardy punts 40 yards to TEN 6, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 5 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 75%

    (6:06) 4-J.Slye 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 3 at the 54 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (4:32) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 84-C.Davis to CAR 47 for 7 yards (23-J.Elliott).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 11 at the 44 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 43%

    (2:36) 5-M.Palardy punts 30 yards to TEN 14, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 3 at the 26 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 84%

    (:52) 4-R.Succop 44 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.