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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 7

Carolina Panthers 3 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(8:10) 7-K.Allen pass short right to 22-C.McCaffrey for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.86 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 7, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model