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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 61

Carolina Panthers 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(12:12) 5-M.Palardy punts 48 yards to TEN 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 10-A.Humphries to TEN 24 for 11 yards (42-C.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +3.10 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 61, worth -3.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 20, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model