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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 64

Carolina Panthers 17 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(9:10) (Punt formation) 42-C.Jones right end to CAR 41 for 5 yards (29-D.Cruikshank).

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
What Happened
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.16 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 64, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 22, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model