4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 54

Tennessee Titans 14 – Carolina Panthers 30

What Actually Happened

(4:32) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 84-C.Davis to CAR 47 for 7 yards (23-J.Elliott).

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.35 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model