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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 67

Tennessee Titans 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:58) 6-B.Kern punts 35 yards to CAR 32, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.61 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.33 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 25, worth -1.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model