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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 15 at the 36

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(14:19) 5-Z.Gonzalez 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.16 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 36, worth -2.26 EP
KICK -0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.91 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model