4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
ARI Away

Arizona Cardinals

HC Kliff Kingsbury
@
TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Bruce Arians
Sunday 2019-11-10 · 13:00 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread 5.5 O/U 51.0

Win Probability

ARI
41.0%
TB
59.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: +0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • ARI defense: +0.155 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • ARI on 3 more days rest than TB

Predicted Final Score

ARI 22
–
TB 25
Projected margin: TB by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

ARI

Zach Allen DE Out Neck
Tramaine Brock CB Out Hamstring
Chase Edmonds RB Out Hamstring
Brooks Reed LB Out Hamstring
Justin Murray T Questionable Knee
Terrell Suggs LB Questionable Hamstring
Deionte Thompson S Questionable Knee

TB

Carlton Davis CB Out Hip
Carl Nassib LB Out Groin
Anthony Nelson LB Out Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 27
–
TB 30

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:17 FG ARI (11:17) 5-Z.Gonzalez 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee. ARI 3 – TB 0
  • Q1 03:46 TD TB (3:46) 27-R.Jones up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 3 – TB 6
  • Q2 14:19 FG ARI (14:19) 5-Z.Gonzalez 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee. ARI 6 – TB 7
  • Q2 08:57 FG TB (8:57) 9-M.Gay 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. ARI 6 – TB 10
  • Q2 01:10 TD ARI (1:10) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 13-C.Kirk for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 12 – TB 10
  • Q2 00:12 TD TB (:12) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 80-O.Howard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 13 – TB 16
  • Q3 08:42 FG TB (8:42) 9-M.Gay 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. ARI 13 – TB 20
  • Q3 08:20 TD ARI (8:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 13-C.Kirk for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 19 – TB 20
  • Q4 09:48 FG TB (9:48) 9-M.Gay 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. ARI 20 – TB 23
  • Q4 07:28 TD ARI (7:28) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 13-C.Kirk for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 26 – TB 23
  • Q4 01:47 TD TB (1:47) 25-P.Barber left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 27 – TB 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 14 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 91%

    (11:17) 5-Z.Gonzalez 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 15 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 62%

    (14:19) 5-Z.Gonzalez 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 9 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%

    (8:57) 9-M.Gay 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 3 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (6:18) 8-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to ARI 7, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 12-P.Cooper.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 6 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (5:24) 4-A.Lee punts 56 yards to TB 33, Center-46-A.Brewer. 22-T.Logan to TB 39 for 6 yards (59-J.Walker; 38-C.Banjo).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 5 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (4:26) 8-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to ARI 8, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds. PENALTY on ARI-81-D.Daniels, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at ARI 8.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 5 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 40%

    (1:20) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 11-L.Fitzgerald to TB 33 for 11 yards (36-M.Stewart). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 1 at the 23
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 87%

    (13:14) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short right to 87-M.Williams.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 8 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 81%

    (8:42) 9-M.Gay 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 12 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (5:12) 8-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to ARI 19, Center-97-Z.Triner. 12-P.Cooper to ARI 21 for 2 yards (79-P.O'Connor; 17-J.Watson).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 10 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:26) 4-A.Lee punts 50 yards to TB 11, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 22-T.Logan.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 3 at the 23
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 87%

    (9:48) 9-M.Gay 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 10 at the 64
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 35%

    (8:39) (Punt formation) 4-A.Lee pass deep left to 12-P.Cooper to TB 38 for 26 yards (39-A.Adams). Penalty on TB-39-A.Adams, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.