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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 56

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Arizona Cardinals 6

What Actually Happened

(6:18) 8-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to ARI 7, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 12-P.Cooper.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.68 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 56, worth -2.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 17, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP