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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 44

Arizona Cardinals 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(1:20) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 11-L.Fitzgerald to TB 33 for 11 yards (36-M.Stewart). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.17 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.67 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model