Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q3
Arizona Cardinals
4th & 1 at the 23
Arizona Cardinals 13 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17
What Actually Happened
(13:14) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short right to 87-M.Williams.
The Three Options
GO
+2.60 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.44 EP
- 33% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 23, worth -1.20 EP
KICK
+1.15 EP
- 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
- 13% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT
-0.35 EP
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
