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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 27

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – Arizona Cardinals 13

What Actually Happened

(8:42) 9-M.Gay 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.93 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 27, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 37, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model