4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 61

Arizona Cardinals 20 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

What Actually Happened

(3:26) 4-A.Lee punts 50 yards to TB 11, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 22-T.Logan.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.70 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model