4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 64

Arizona Cardinals 20 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23

What Actually Happened

(8:39) (Punt formation) 4-A.Lee pass deep left to 12-P.Cooper to TB 38 for 26 yards (39-A.Adams). Penalty on TB-39-A.Adams, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.44 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 22, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.33 EP