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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 47

Atlanta Falcons 10 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(6:54) 9-R.Allen punts 37 yards to NO 10, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.85 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 47, worth -2.77 EP
KICK -1.16 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 13, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP