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ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2019-11-10 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 14.0 O/U 51.5

Win Probability

ATL
33.7%
NO
66.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Drew Brees (NO): +0.267 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • ATL offense: +0.057 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • ATL defense: +0.209 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • NO offense: +0.075 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • NO defense: -0.052 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ATL 23
–
NO 27
Projected margin: NO by 4 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

ATL

John Cominsky DE Out Ankle
Wes Schweitzer G Out Concussion
Ito Smith RB Out Neck
Desmond Trufant CB Questionable Toe

NO

Patrick Robinson CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 26
–
NO 9

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:32 FG ATL (9:32) 7-Y.Koo 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen. ATL 3 – NO 0
  • Q1 04:13 FG NO (4:13) 3-W.Lutz 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. ATL 3 – NO 3
  • Q2 11:13 TD ATL (11:13) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 81-A.Hooper for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 8, YAC 0 ATL 9 – NO 3
  • Q2 01:35 FG ATL (1:35) 7-Y.Koo 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen. ATL 13 – NO 3
  • Q2 00:05 FG NO (:05) 3-W.Lutz 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. ATL 13 – NO 6
  • Q3 06:09 FG NO (6:09) 3-W.Lutz 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. ATL 13 – NO 9
  • Q4 15:00 TD ATL (15:00) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 23-B.Hill for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 2, YAC 8 ATL 19 – NO 9
  • Q4 07:33 FG ATL (7:33) 7-Y.Koo 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen. ATL 23 – NO 9
  • Q4 02:35 FG ATL (2:35) 7-Y.Koo 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen. ATL 26 – NO 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 16 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 92%

    (9:32) 7-Y.Koo 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (4:13) 3-W.Lutz 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 4 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 47%

    (:36) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan scrambles right end ran ob at NO 39 for 5 yards (24-V.Bell).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (9:28) 6-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to ATL 28, Center-49-Z.Wood. 38-K.Barner to ATL 49 for 21 yards (48-J.Gray).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 6 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 40%

    (6:54) 9-R.Allen punts 37 yards to NO 10, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 14 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (3:00) 6-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to ATL 17, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-48-J.Gray.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 10 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 93%

    (1:35) 7-Y.Koo 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 8 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (12:20) 6-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to ATL 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-48-J.Gray.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 20 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (9:35) 9-R.Allen punts 40 yards to NO 43, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-D.Harris to ATL 38 for 19 yards (47-J.Harris).

  • Q3 NO 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (6:09) 3-W.Lutz 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 19 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (12:40) 6-T.Morstead punts 42 yards to ATL 21, Center-49-Z.Wood. 38-K.Barner to ATL 33 for 12 yards (52-C.Robertson).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 9 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 79%

    (7:33) 7-Y.Koo 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 5 at the 59
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (5:31) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees sacked at NO 34 for -7 yards (44-V.Beasley).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 2 at the 81 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66%

    (3:38) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass incomplete short middle to 87-J.Cook (95-J.Crawford).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 4 at the 12 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 96%

    (2:35) 7-Y.Koo 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 14 at the 14 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 95%

    (:02) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 13-M.Thomas to ATL 1 for 13 yards (54-F.Oluokun). Pass 13, YAC 0