Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 14 at the 68

New Orleans Saints 3 – Atlanta Falcons 10

(3:00) 6-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to ATL 17, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-48-J.Gray.

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.46 EP
67% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 68, worth -3.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model