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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 58

New Orleans Saints 6 – Atlanta Falcons 13

What Actually Happened

(12:20) 6-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to ATL 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-48-J.Gray.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.93 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 58, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 18, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model