Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 20 at the 83

Atlanta Falcons 13 – New Orleans Saints 6

(9:35) 9-R.Allen punts 40 yards to NO 43, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-D.Harris to ATL 38 for 19 yards (47-J.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -3.20 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.81 EP
73% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 83, worth -5.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model