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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 16 at the 19

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(9:32) 7-Y.Koo 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.10 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 19, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 29, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model