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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 30

Atlanta Falcons 20 – New Orleans Saints 9

What Actually Happened

(7:33) 7-Y.Koo 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.35 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 40, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model