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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 59

New Orleans Saints 9 – Atlanta Falcons 23

What Actually Happened

(5:31) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees sacked at NO 34 for -7 yards (44-V.Beasley).

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.09 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 59, worth -2.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 18, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model