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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 16

Buffalo Bills 7 – Cleveland Browns 9

What Actually Happened

(:20) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 34 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.12 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 16, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +2.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.78 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26, worth -0.24 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model