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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
@
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Cleveland Browns

HC Freddie Kitchens
Sunday 2019-11-10 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

BUF
50.0%
CLE
50.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.174 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • BUF offense: -0.057 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • BUF defense: -0.106 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to CLE: Baker Mayfield (CLE) -0.014 vs Josh Allen (BUF) -0.044 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

BUF 20
–
CLE 21
Projected margin: CLE by 1 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

BUF

No players on the report.

CLE

Eric Murray S Out Knee
Olivier Vernon DE Out Knee
Ricky Seals-Jones TE Questionable Knee
Kendall Lamm T Questionable Knee
Damarious Randall S Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 16
–
CLE 19

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:13 TD CLE (12:13) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 80-J.Landry for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CLE-80-J.Landry, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. BUF 0 – CLE 6
  • Q2 10:13 TD BUF (10:13) (Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – CLE 6
  • Q2 03:38 FG CLE (3:38) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Seibert 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan. BUF 7 – CLE 9
  • Q3 11:00 SAF BUF (11:00) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked in End Zone for -8 yards, SAFETY (49-T.Edmunds). BUF 9 – CLE 9
  • Q3 03:53 FG CLE (3:53) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Seibert 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan. BUF 9 – CLE 12
  • Q4 05:34 TD BUF (5:34) 17-Jos.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 15 – CLE 12
  • Q4 01:48 TD CLE (1:48) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 81-R.Higgins for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 16 – CLE 18

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 4 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 52%

    (10:36) (Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen pass incomplete short left to 15-J.Brown.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 2 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 47%

    (7:44) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 88-D.Harris pushed ob at BUF 25 for 16 yards (39-L.Wallace).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 99%

    (3:18) 24-N.Chubb right tackle to BUF 3 for -2 yards (94-C.Liuget; 58-M.Milano).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 4 at the 91
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (1:50) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 59 yards to CLE 32, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 25-D.Hilliard MUFFS catch, and recovers at CLE 27. 25-D.Hilliard to CLE 27 for no gain (32-S.Perry).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 2 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (15:00) 7-J.Gillan punts 53 yards to BUF 12, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 18-A.Roberts to BUF 24 for 12 yards (25-D.Hilliard).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 97%

    (3:38) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Seibert 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 10 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 93%

    (:20) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 34 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 10 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 25%

    (11:09) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to CLE 7, out of bounds.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 3 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (8:57) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to CLE 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 25-D.Hilliard.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 6 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 76%

    (3:53) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Seibert 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 4 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 60%

    (:02) (Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen pass incomplete short middle to 15-J.Brown [51-M.Wilson].

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 9 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:34) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan punts 47 yards to BUF 16, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 18-A.Roberts.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 6 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (11:32) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to CLE 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 25-D.Hilliard.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 13 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (9:23) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan punts 46 yards to BUF 30, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 18-A.Roberts to CLE 48 for 22 yards (30-D.Johnson).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 4 at the 35 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 63%

    (:22) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.