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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 29

Cleveland Browns 9 – Buffalo Bills 9

What Actually Happened

(3:53) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Seibert 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.53 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 29, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 39, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model