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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 63

Cleveland Browns 12 – Buffalo Bills 9

What Actually Happened

(13:34) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan punts 47 yards to BUF 16, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 18-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.38 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 63, worth -3.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model