Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 60

Buffalo Bills 9 – Cleveland Browns 12

(11:32) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to CLE 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 25-D.Hilliard.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.57 EP
59% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 60, worth -3.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model