Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 13 at the 76

Cleveland Browns 12 – Buffalo Bills 9

(9:23) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan punts 46 yards to BUF 30, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 18-A.Roberts to CLE 48 for 22 yards (30-D.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -2.66 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.69 EP
72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 76, worth -4.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model