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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Buffalo Bills
4th & 4 at the 39
Buffalo Bills 0 – Cleveland Browns 6
What Actually Happened
(10:36) (Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen pass incomplete short left to 15-J.Brown.
The Three Options
GO
+0.28 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.57 EP
- 55% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 39, worth -2.41 EP
KICK
-0.62 EP
- 52% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
- 48% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 48, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT
-0.48 EP
- Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
